Macro market regime

CEV-OS / Data API / Macro market regime

CEV-OS Data API · last updated 2026-11-04. Status: live. Version 1.

Use this when you want one slow-moving macro regime flag (risk_on / neutral / risk_off) with its transparent inputs: yield curve, financial conditions, financial stress, unemployment trigger and jobless-claims trend.

What it is

Five public inputs, each scored -1/0/+1 with published thresholds; the sum gives the regime and |sum|/n the confidence. Inputs: T10Y3M (Fed H.15), NFCI (Chicago Fed), STLFSI4 (St. Louis Fed), a Sahm-style trigger computed by cev-os from BLS UNRATE, and DOL initial claims (ICSA) vs their 52-week low. No prices. The Trend Vol-Target exposure component is a separate product at /v1/regime-trend.

Endpoints

REST: GET /v1/macro-regime on https://api.cev-os.com
Legacy host (same service): GET /v1/macro-regime on https://cev-os.com
MCP tool: get_macro_regime on https://mcp.cev-os.com/mcp

Parameters

None. This product takes no query parameters.

Example request

No account and no key. Query values below are the examples or defaults from the registry. An optional free key (header x-api-key) raises the limits; create one at https://cev-os.com/#api_keys after signing in with a verified email (Google sign-in is already verified).

curl -s "https://api.cev-os.com/v1/macro-regime"

Example response

Every /v1 response is a JSON envelope (schema_version, product, timestamps, license, attribution, data). The registry example is the data member:

{
  "regime": "risk_on",
  "score": 4,
  "max_score": 5,
  "confidence": 0.8,
  "inputs": [
    {
      "id": "financial_conditions_nfci",
      "series": [
        "NFCI"
      ],
      "value": -0.499,
      "score": 1
    }
  ]
}

Update frequency

Computed on request, cached 1 h. Inputs update daily (curve), weekly (NFCI, STLFSI4, claims) and monthly (unemployment).

Public cache: 3600 seconds (Cache-Control: public, max-age=3600).

Sources, license and usage

License status: cleared with attribution. Fed/BLS/DOL series with no copyright notice on FRED; cite each source and FRED (citations in each input). Inputs are read via FRED, whose terms bar commercial use and caching without St. Louis Fed consent: commercial use NOT cleared (under review).

Underlying sources
Source	License	commercialOk	Terms
Fed H.15 (T10Y3M), Chicago Fed NFCI, St. Louis Fed STLFSI4 via FRED	No copyright notice on these FRED series (US public-sector data); cite source + FRED. FRED Services Terms of Use (fred.stlouisfed.org/legal) bar commercial use without the St. Louis Fed prior written consent (prohibition j) and storing/caching FRED content (prohibition p); commercial use not cleared, under review.	pending	https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics	US Government work (public domain); cite BLS	true	https://www.bls.gov/opub/copyright-information.htm
U.S. Department of Labor (weekly claims release)	US Government work (public domain)	true	—

Attribution (show this wherever you display the data):

Federal Reserve Board (H.15), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (NFCI), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (STLFSI4), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (UNRATE), U.S. Department of Labor (ICSA); retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Privacy class: public-derived. Access: public. Price: free (price is null; pay-per-call is not active).

Disclaimer

Informational macro indicator. Not investment advice.

Data API hub (all products, limits, license notes)
MCP Registry listing com.cev-os/data
OpenAPI 3.1
Machine product list: /v1/products

Reference data, not investment advice.